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ALLIANT ENERGY CORP (LNT)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 GAAP EPS was $0.58 and non-GAAP EPS was $0.70, with revenue of $976M; operating income of $222M drove a 22.8% EBIT margin, up sequentially from Q3’s 28.9% and above Q4 2023’s 19.0% on YoY basis despite higher interest and depreciation and tax timing effects .
  • Full-year 2024 ongoing EPS was $3.04 vs. $2.82 in 2023; management affirmed 2025 ongoing EPS guidance of $3.15–$3.25 and assumptions including a consolidated effective tax rate of (28%) .
  • Strategic growth catalysts accelerated: 1.9 GW of data center load commitments at Big Cedar (Iowa) and an agreement in principle with a data center customer at Beaver Dam (Wisconsin), with CapEx and financing updates (including equity mix of ~45–50% on new capex) targeted for Q1 2025 .
  • Cash flow strength and cost discipline: 2024 cash from operations increased 35% ($300M) YoY to $1,167M, aided by tax credit monetization, base rate resets and working capital optimization; voluntary separations reduced workforce ~5% to support sustainable O&M savings .
  • Consensus estimates context: S&P Global consensus data was unavailable at time of request due to vendor limits; therefore beats/misses vs Street cannot be assessed (values typically retrieved from S&P Global).

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Ongoing EPS rose to $3.04 for 2024 (vs. $2.82 in 2023), supported by higher revenue requirements from capital investments at WPL and IPL; management reiterated the long-term 5–7% EPS growth framework .
  • Economic development traction: “We reached a significant milestone…securing commitments with signed agreements of up to 1.9 gigawatts of data center load at our Big Cedar site in Cedar Rapids” and an agreement in principle for Beaver Dam, WI; update expected in Q1 2025 .
  • Cash flow improvement: “2024 cash flows from operations increased by approximately $300 million or 35%,” driven by tax credit monetization and rate resets; O&M (ex non-GAAP items) down ~$30M YoY .

What Went Wrong

  • Milder weather headwind: “Temperature impacts…decreased Alliant Energy’s earnings by approximately $0.15 per share in 2024” vs. $0.06 in 2023; Q4 temperature impact on operating income was ($17M) .
  • Higher interest and depreciation and lower AFUDC pressured results (Q4 variance drivers: interest expense, depreciation and AFUDC were negative; full-year interest led to $0.15 lower EPS) .
  • Non-GAAP charges: $60M Lansing asset valuation (Q2), $29M restructuring/voluntary separations (Q4), and $20M ARO for steam assets (Q2); 2024 non-GAAP adjustments totaled $91M or $0.35/share .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$961 $1,081 $976
GAAP EPS ($)$0.47 $1.15 $0.58
Non-GAAP EPS ($)$0.48 $1.15 $0.70
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$183 $313 $222
EBIT Margin (%)19.0% (183/961) 28.9% (313/1,081) 22.8% (222/976)
Interest Expense ($USD Millions)$105 $114 $120
Income Tax Expense (Benefit) ($USD Millions)$1 ($62) ($10)
Segment EPS BreakdownQ4 2023 GAAP EPSQ4 2024 GAAP EPSQ4 2024 Non-GAAP EPS
IPL$0.14 $0.35 $0.39
WPL$0.30 $0.30 $0.34
Corporate Services$0.01 $0.01 $0.01
ATC Holdings$0.04 $0.05 $0.05
Non-utility and Parent($0.02) ($0.13) ($0.09)
Consolidated$0.47 $0.58 $0.70
KPIs (Quarter)Q4 2023Q4 2024
Utility Electric Sales (Total, 000s MWh)7,612 8,116
- Residential (000s MWh)1,651 1,649
- Commercial (000s MWh)1,548 1,556
- Industrial (000s MWh)2,574 2,572
Utility Gas Sold & Transported (Total, 000s Dth)41,520 44,499
Electric Retail Customers (Total, period-end)995,982 1,002,967
Gas Retail Customers (Total, period-end)428,143 430,699
Temperature Impact on Operating Income (Quarter, $USD Millions)($13) ($17)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Ongoing EPSFY 2025$3.15–$3.25 $3.15–$3.25 Maintained
Consolidated Effective Tax RateFY 2025(28%) (28%) Maintained
Annual Dividend TargetFY 2025$2.03 per share target Quarterly $0.5075 declared, payable Feb 18, 2025 Increased vs prior $0.48 quarterly rate in 2024 key stats
CapEx Plan (2025–2028)Multi-year$11B aggregate (forecast) Update to be provided with Q1 2025 earnings Update pending

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024)Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Data centers load growthSettlement construct enabling ICR; laying groundwork Strong interest; updated load forecast planned 1.9 GW commitments at Big Cedar; Beaver Dam agreement in principle; Q1 CapEx/financing update Accelerating
Financing & Equity MixNot detailedNot detailed~45–50% equity for incremental capex; strong balance sheet and CFO improvement Clarified, positive
Safe harbor tax creditsARO impacts and revised CCR rule Not detailed“Safe harbor…a substantial majority” of renewables/battery projects through 4 years Strengthening tax position
Regulatory & IRP constructsIowa settlement; proposed moratorium; CCR impacts PSCW test period rate base additions; ROE/cap structure typical Iowa legislation to expand flexible ICR; PSCW filings for CA/CO approvals; WI rate review filing planned Supportive, proactive
O&M disciplineNot highlightedGuidance narrowed; cost control implied O&M ex non-GAAP down ~$30M YoY; ~5% workforce reduction via voluntary separation Cost takeout sustained
MISO capacity/transmissionNot detailedWPL investments/solar/battery ATC Tranche 2.1 ~$2B assigned, up to $1.8B ROFR/competitive post-2030 Long-term optionality

Management Commentary

  • “We’re pleased to complete 1,500 megawatts of solar…Combined with existing 1,800 megawatts of wind…strengthen the clean energy element of our balanced generation portfolio” .
  • “Securing commitments with signed agreements of up to 1.9 gigawatts of data center load at our Big Cedar site in Cedar Rapids…we expect to add this new data center demand to our updated resource supply plan, capital expenditure plan and financing plans” .
  • “2024 cash flows from operations increased by approximately $300 million or 35%…tax credit monetization…rate increases…reduced working capital requirements” .
  • “We are affirming our 2025 earnings guidance range of $3.15 to $3.25 per share” .
  • “We successfully commissioned 1.5 gigawatts of solar energy investments…reinforcing our leadership in regulated owned renewables” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Financing structure: For incremental capex, expect ~45–50% equity financing, remainder debt; FFO and cash flows trending up via tax credit monetization and rate resets .
  • Wisconsin rate review: Drivers are largely rate base additions (solar, battery) with fuel savings and tax benefits; typical ROE/capital structure debates expected .
  • Safe harbor: Management has “safe harbored a substantial majority” of planned renewables and battery storage projects across the next 4 years, with proactive MISO queue positioning .
  • Data center pipeline: Big Cedar “essentially fully booked” with slight remaining room; balanced “all-of-the-above” resource approach including renewables and gas to meet load .
  • Iowa legislative updates: Expanded flexible ICR and advanced ratemaking thresholds (to 40 MW) to enable tailored contracts and resource flexibility for large customers .

Estimates Context

  • Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue was unavailable at time of request due to vendor limits; as a result, we cannot assess beats/misses vs consensus in this recap. Values typically retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Ongoing earnings momentum and regulatory execution underpin a durable 5–7% long-term EPS growth outlook; 2025 ongoing EPS affirmed at $3.15–$3.25 .
  • Data center-driven load growth is becoming tangible, with 1.9 GW committed and an additional Wisconsin site, suggesting upward bias to resource, capex and financing plans in Q1; monitor equity issuance cadence and ROE outcomes .
  • Cost discipline and tax credit monetization materially improved cash generation (CFO $1,167M), supporting capex and balance sheet strength amid higher interest rates .
  • Weather sensitivity remains a swing factor; 2024 weather reduced EPS by ~$0.15, but rate structures and customer growth partially offset impacts .
  • Non-GAAP charges in 2024 are largely behind (Lansing $60M, ARO $20M, restructuring $29M); normalized run-rate should reflect higher rate base and O&M savings .
  • Transmission optionality via ATC (Tranche 2.1 ~$2B assigned, up to $1.8B potential) adds long-term investment avenues beyond 2030 .
  • Near-term catalyst: Q1 2025 update on capex/resource/financing (including equity mix) and WI rate filings; watch for clarity on timing/ramp of data center loads and resource mix .